The latest update from Phil to Tom


Here is the latest. All states reported infections including Washington DC, West Virginia being the last state reporting its first infection on March 17, 2020. Over the course of the last week, the number of infected increased around 30% per day in the United States

142 countries in the world reported infections. Not all reporting services define countries in the same way, but this is the tally from the source I’ve been following.

The CDC estimated that between 2.4 million and 21 million people may need hospitalization in the United States1, which has a total of 925,000 beds, of which less than 10% are dedicated to critically ill2. The outbreak could last months, to a year. Estimates suggest that Covid-19 could infect between 160 and 214 million Americans.

If this rate of infection holds steady, basic math says that the number of infected people will double every three days, my input, and if it holds for a month, by April 14 close to 7 million people will have been infected within the United States. Realize this is based on an assumption that the numbers increase 30% a day. This rate may change. Also, this is purely exponential, and disease infections follow a logistics curve, which has an exponential stretch in the beginning, and have a shoulder and a tail. I will continue to monitor the reports and update estimates on a periodic basis.